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Author:
Pavel Bobrovnikov
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3.06.2011

Management by end results of activity (MERA). Risk management. System catastrophes and failures. Anti-recessionary management.

Pages: 1 2 3 4
First of all, we should define, that such system catastrophes. This multiple phenomenon. However together with progress the mankind will collide in increasing frequency with such kind of disasters. Especially it concerns the system « the person - technical progress ».

In the beginning we shall define for the system « the person - the designed world ». In age-old times technical and the technology factors influential in safety of the person, was not too much.

Houses of low construction. Practically any communications. Protozoa means of transport. But the world was changed. And today it is already possible to write, that the person has become is defenceless, somewhat, before engineering and technologies. Certainly, there is such concept as safety precautions and rules which inherently should defend us from failures.

However Titanic has sunk, 4-th block of the atomic power station in Chernobyl has blown up, the business center in New York is destroyed and so on. I shall not list{transfer} many other examples of system catastrophes to not force on you redundant pavor.

It is important for us to understand one simple true. Systems of safety existing today have strong branch dependence (or dependence on a concrete kind of maintained engineering, structures, constructions and to that similar). Problems interaction on the junction of branches we attempt while to decide at a level not contacts (or precise differentiation) spheres (areola) of influence of branch or a concrete kind of a maintained construction. But such approach to solution of problems starts to give failures. The reason to this phenomenon is simple. The zoetic space, especially in the advanced countries, tends to be reduced. And contact of branch objects becomes more and more close. For example, the large shopping centers placed above lines of undergrounds.

I shall not write about necessity of interbranch standards of safety. They exist. All the same example about accommodation of shopping center above a line of underground. Naturally at designing any of these objects, the availability of the second is taken into account. Me the question how it is possible to control safety in complex interbranch systems (as a rule, already maintained) will interest.

And, first of all, it is necessary to perceive distinctly, that complete systems including technogenic, can be formed in conditions of interbranch interaction. I offer similar constructions to consolidate in a unit which is complex business unit, as a matter of fact.

If in age-old times in the system of conveyance of passengers in omnibuses one social inquiry was formed only. It - removal of the person from one point in other. That today the advanced transport system should execute social requests on increase of speed of carriage, comfort, insurance. The extended requests of social inquiries, in turn, form the qualitative extension of business around of traditional branches. These are objects of public catering, hotel, terminals and so forth. And these objects for maintenance of the operation require availability of additional objects of life-support. For example, this housing accommodation for the attendants. In result complexes are formed complex socially technologically.

The present social system of the responsibility according to norms of safety means the responsibility only within the framework of one object or branch. For example, buildings, trains, the automobile, the ministry and to that similar.

However not all so is simple. Sometimes, people responsible for safety, make all correctly within the framework of the rules of operation of object. Or admit minor violations which in case of the located object to any disastrous consequences cannot result. And catastrophe descends (how many similar cases in our life already happened). At trial, at a stage of inquest sometimes it is very difficult to place an actual reason of fatality or the true and uniform party in fault happened. An example, death of Titanic. Till now there is no answer - why there was a tragedy, and till now there are contributors of this event.

As a rule, at system catastrophes there is no uniform reason of catastrophe, there is no one guilty. Each of persons responsible for safety has introduced the mite to fatality. Therefore within the framework of the existing legislation difficultly or nearly so it is impossible attract somebody in really serious responsibility for the occurred tragedy. While the mankind uses in such situation a simple method of search guilty - penalize "switchman". Not without reason it is considered one of multiple spheres of activity of the person activity when various branch interests adjoin.

However the urgency of solution of a problem of system catastrophes increases. The world becomes more multiple both in technical sense and in social sense. However it does not mean, that the world becomes unguided. And about on the basis of what principles it is possible to control complex systems we shall talk in this article.

First of all, it is necessary to perceive, that any human system is in my comprehension business unit (even that is formed besides our will). It is important, very important. It is impossible from a service of the airport as systems to exclude, for example, services which provide passengers with power supply. This is unit. It is uniform business unit. Its primary goal - service of passengers.

How to design correct management of business unit from within, it is written already very much and much. For example, dear professor August-Wilhelm Scheer has in details enough developed the theory of management of processes. Moreover, mister professor not only has created the theory, but under his management the remarkable tool is built, permitting to model from within operation very complex business units. In the Internet many articles on this theme are published. Moreover, you can always address to the protosource, namely familiarize directly with operations of professor Scheer. I shall not write in details about it.
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