The single ticket is broken on
parts life without communication between yesterday's
in the afternoon and today's, between today's
and tomorrow's. And only the person who has clamped
in a fist the return ticket, can sing
hardly a sad song about
single ticket.
(Abe Kobo «Woman in sand»)
 
I can be mistaken and mistaken,
that I put aside money very sincerely, therefore you
me forgive …
(Yours Pavel Bobrovnikov)

After a spelling of the article about numerical algorithms of account of transition of process from a condition of the purpose to a condition of a problem, at me the problem has appeared: and why, actually, sociological function has such kind. In what the radical of "graduated" behaviour of any human system is covered. But I was not for long tormented by this problem, and have soon understood as it is possible to justify and prove my suppositions.
 
Moreover, the concept of a degree of reliance entered by this article will be necessary for me for my further reasonings on crisis management, on a parity between strategy and tactics. As it is difficult for person to argue at a level of probabilities, it is easier to use simple concepts (though and having the probability nature).
 
For this purpose it is necessary to look closely at the diagram of stable conditions submitted in the article «Model of stable conditions and developments of a system ». The answer to above formulated problem is covered in the analysis of possible directions of progress and recourse of any system. Those directions which are submitted as sections of a circle (arrows of development and depressing 1 and 2) mean.
 
The proof.
 
The first supposition. We shall enter concept a degree of reliance, as the attitude of probability of knowledge of knowledge to probability of presence of the knowledge. Really, the better we know about we have what knowledge, the above our reliance of any dispute, that more easy we make of a solution. On the diagram of conditions is an attitude of significance on an axis of abscissas to significance on an axis of ordinates up to a point located on this or that curve, circumscribing progress or recourse of a system.
 
The second supposition. Any path of development of a human system (1 or 2 in any direction) can be presented as a circle of individual radius with centre in an origin of coordinates of probabilities. And an angle to consider proportional to time of development of a system, relative power consumption or still to any vital parameters circumscribing processes of functioning and progress / recourse of human organization.
 
Accordingly, to define our position in an offered number system, having the certain stock of optimism (pessimism), it is necessary to take advantage of mathematical function "arctangent" which mathematical corresponds indicated reflections.
 
That, as was to be shown.
 
If all my suppositions are true, then and correctly the supposition about graduated development of any human community. Hereinafter I shall try to develop the ideas further, and in the new articles I shall lean and refer to them. This my short reflection marks one more my (and I hope - ours) overcome "step" to understanding of essence of the attitude of strategy and tactics, the purpose and a problem. And also will help me more precisely to formulate my understanding of essence of a crisis condition and management.

Last modified: 28.03.2004
Translation by computer