At the end of the nineteenth century Herman Amadeus Shwarz
proved that in the case of a cylinder of a one-unit radius and
a one-unit height, triangulation method can give any index
for a lateral face: starting from the absolute index until the infinity!
(B. Mandelbrot)

When I was a first-year student, I was deeply impressed by principle of uncertainty of Shredinger-Heizenberg in nuclear physics. In my future career I had often come across this phenomenon both in physical processes and in various types of human activity. Then I formulated a general principle of uncertainty for any kind of human activity. When someone asks me whether it is possible to make anything within a certain period of time, I reply “Everything is possible - one can launch a shuttle to Mars, cure cancer, reach the center of the earth, or set up the towel of Babel, however there are just two binding factors: time and money. This is what I am going to tell you about in this article.
 
But can we really do anything we like and what does it require? At the beginning of overall automation people usually made one and the same organizational mistake – it seemed that the solider the IT investments, the better the result. Actually, this idea did not always become a reality. Quite often the attraction of extremely sound investments resulted in a conflict between a high tempo of software development and the customer’s vision of what results he wanted to get. So, the effect was quite negative. Does not this situation remind you of what is written in the epigraph? So, the more we invest in company’s automation, the larger the chance of prolonging the expected terms to infinity (!).
 
I can draw another example of Shwarz paradox in transport. I mean organization of public transport (metro here). If we decrease traffic intervals, the passenger traffic is likely to grow, consequently decreasing the time spent by each passenger. In this case, the relative wear of the rolling stock as well as the relative amortization expenses get down. However, this approach works until we reach a certain traffic interval. After that point the effect is quite opposite: traffic failures, passengers lack time to get off and in, which makes them hold the doors (etc.). The latter in its turn leads to damages, which increase relative amortization investments in the rolling stock. Logic reasoning also allows a supposition that in case of extremely small traffic intervals the metro system will stop functioning at all. (Traffic problems will suddenly increase, and the blame will be on both the passengers and the traffic organization systems).
 
Thus, the uncertainty principle may look as follows:

Time * Investments >= Fixed index

Here investments can be considered as having no connection to a certain currency, but as directly connected with gross national product. But it is not very important now. Let us clear it out what lays beneath this simple formula (at the same time let us see what problems the automation processes face).
 
Suppose, we have a certain aim and the achievement implies time and investments. Logic reasoning makes it clear that if we want to shorten the time period we will have to increase investments, but if we prefer to save money we are likely to spend more time to achieve our aim. So, according to this formula, in order to keep the inequality we will have to increase one of the co-multipliers so that the other one could get lower and the inequality would be preserved.
 
So, in order to achieve expected results we must create all conditions allowing preserving the inequality. At the same time, the latter does not guarantee that the process will go on according to our plan. Actually, the increase of investments does not necessarily imply the reduction of time period – it can get shortened or not, or even prolonged – the formula allows all the results. Our idea of saving investments faces the same situation – the prolongation of time period does not guarantee that the achievement of our aim will not require extra investments. This is the power of the uncertainty principle. This is what production automation and other processes usually face. It often seems that if we invest sound money today, tomorrow everything will be functioning perfectly. However, this dream does not always come true. Instead, tomorrow we may come to uncertainty, as along with investments we should imply some changes in business technologies, as well as management restructuring (Change of the system’s condition).
 
A fixed index is likely to have one and the same value for various types of human activity. However, I do not know the value; moreover I cannot even imagine how to calculate it. It requires lots of mathematical model experiments, but I do not have enough money to make them (the uncertainty principle in my own experience). I won’t get very much surprised at learning that this parameter has much in common with a corresponding parameter of the nuclear physics. And the similarity of this world can be a significant proof to this thesis (Mandelbrot again). Besides, the formula itself fully corresponds to its physical analogue; here I have just substituted its co-multipliers by other means...
 
Now let us discuss how to avoid problems with the uncertainty principle. I suppose that in order to get an adequate response of any system to our influence and to plan the further functioning of system according to the preservation of the uncertainty principle, we should make a qualitative change of the considered system’s condition. Please do not get frightened, it is not that difficult as it seems. Let us get back to the example with the metro system. Hypothetically, we can arrange a non-stop conveyer of trains; it just requires a full correspondence between the length of platforms and stages. It will allow us to decrease traffic delays. We can also introduce new transport means or management principles, etc. The uncertainty principle will obviously work here as well, but on another technical level.
 
Let me draw one more example of automation. You are free to choose an extensive way of introduction and development of informational system, but it requires that the company’s management allotted money on its own technologists and software experts team. However, sooner or later this team is likely to face the uncertainty principle as well, but quite on another level. Though the system’s condition has changed, the uncertainty principle has remained even on another technological level.
 
I wish you never got in conflict with the uncertainty principle (as no one can fight it anyway). It will help you save your nerves and money. It is like the question whether a Cinderella can become a good princess. Of course, if the system (Cinderella) changes its condition by learning manners, economic basis, and system of public life, she will be able to lead an active political life. Otherwise, she will have to part with her handsome prince. I wish you never found yourself in the position of a poor Cinderella, but become a beautiful queen of your own kingdom.
 
PS
You can experience the uncertainty principle right now. It seems that the more frequently you repeat one and the same word, the deeper the sense you get. However, it will go on until a certain point when this word loses any sense for you. However, if you want to check the uncertainty principle at system condition changes, you should vary the frequency of repeating the word, or apply flexible frequency.
 
PPS
Let me draw one more supposition. Well-known Peter’s principle saying that each individual reaches his incompetence level moving up the hierarchic tree is likely to represent a consequence of the uncertainty principle.

Last modified: 30.11.2003
Translation by Elena Polyanskaya