Before I shall result the reasons of processes of planning in business (strategy and tactics), I would like to discuss quantitative methods of accounts of parities between the purpose and a problem. I already have reasonings, concerning the given subject on the basis of the theory of sets. But it not always and not all is clear, especially, concerning practical use. Therefore I have decided a little to simplify the reflections in this subject on the basis of flat functions.
 
It also is important and at the analysis of planning in business, as basis for definition of concepts of tactics and strategy of development. As any planning assumes not only actually imposition of plans, but also monitoring of their performance that implies itself an operation some numerical parameters (a parity - how many have planned to the obtained outcomes).
 
That to us univalently to understand and, the most important, to analyze quantity indicators of an essence of processes, let's be defined with such important concept as a degree of indeterminacy of reaching of outcome. Actually it means probability of success of any our affair. The it is higher (a degree of indeterminacy), the above risk. It is possible to speak also and about risk of all our enterprise. It is the factor we hereinafter and we shall use as the basic analyzable magnitude.
 
It is further important for us to understand, that at a solution of any problems, we are compelled to expend money, human, intellectual and other resources. The more we expend resources, the below probability of risk of negative outcome. Here, however, it is not necessary to forget about a principle of the indeterminacy circumscribed by me in the corresponding article. Not always the scheduled time within the framework of the certain resources adequately to realities of life.
 
There is a third parameter which will be necessary for us is a time. Clearly, that under any circumstances what we resources would not expend, as though we did not plan our risks, nevertheless, fulfilment of works needs time, and it is rather concrete in each case. If it is brief, it will be necessary to analyse the following logic line-up « probability of reaching of outcome-> resources-> time ». I have devoted this the given article.
 
For the beginning I have drawn the schedule mapping dependence of indeterminacy of reaching of outcome depending on time provided that we spend some resources (look figure) for the isolated process. Actually this curve maps behaviour of any human problem in time.
 
The schedule represents some complicated step-function. Until then while the risk remains high, the actions scheduled by us can be considered as the purpose. The essence is very simple, we do not have knowledge of that and as us to reach this purpose. There are many solutions, and we yet do not know, what from them the best. But we, naturally invest (means, forces) in study of processes, in modelling experiments, we try to realize, that happens in a reality and where there is a golden mean.
 
And on what that a stage of our knowledge, the picture starts to appear more and more precisely, we enter during progress, the degree of indeterminacy of reaching of outcome starts to decrease sharply. How there can be this development, I have described in the article about stable conditions of a system. Briefly there are two most probable paths, through own knowledge or through bought knowledge.
 
Further, after a while, during constant development we hit on the next plateau. It is a level where for reaching the purpose standard means and outcome are required is very predicted. It already a problem. We have accumulated enough knowledge that it is correct for deciding. For example, to solder a unpretentious radio receiver two hundred years ago was for academicians the unattainable purpose, and today, at lessons of physics schoolboys with success decide the given problem. Pay attention, I began the previous offer from concept of the purpose (it would be possible also problems), and have stopped a problem (it would be possible a problem), but thus the outcome of our desires and operations was not changed - a radio receiver.
 
It is important to understand, that depending on an amount of expended resources, the behaviour of our schedule, that is transition of process depends on a condition of the purposes in a condition of a problem also. In my figure it is schedules 1 and 2. Accordingly, if we put less resources also our step is a little removed in time, can be more flat (that is progress is less expressed), however the amplitude of significances from the purpose up to a problem remains constant (Bobrovnikov's a principle).
 
Actually on it discussion of a parity between the purposes and a problem could and be finished. But. There is a relentless time, and our system is not isolated. Means of reaching of the purpose and a solution of problems can become outdated, as the environment and enclosing processes varies. And we can render in a "negative" zone. Certainly the negative probability is nonsense but if we shall assume, that it already probability not reachings of expected outcome all becomes logically correct. This condition of crisis or recourse. It appears, that the means checked by time do not bring due outcome. We plan, that one outcome should be received, and is received absolutely other. The world of revolution and change political building and if want a modification of a human way of life.
 
Here that also occurs a turn of so-called crisis management. Its functionality can be briefly circumscribed as economies of means and their direction on development of knowledge, sufficient for alignment of our schedule. It is important, because we should understand as how to change in structure of management, again to receive predicted outcomes (to be gathered knowledge). It is natural, that costs of knowledge in this case will be much less, than on a pioneering stage of processes of reaching of the purpose. Also is very actual to realize in this case, that one economies in this situation to not do without, processes of investments in new additional knowledge are necessary. It is possible to act, certainly, in Russian at random, but such approach can reduce in full breakdown of a system.
 
For what to use the approach circumscribed by me in practice, it is necessary to apply decomposition business of processes on composite, and construction to each process of the diagram of similar function. Then there is a possibility really to evaluate the forces on paths of prosperity and progress. In fact on something costs which it for you is too expensive also is possible to postpone before the best times are required, something can be purchased from colleagues, somewhere it is possible to save. As receptions of decomposition it is possible to use techniques IDEF, but it is possible to take advantage and heterogeneous systems of decomposition.
 
Naturally, it is important numerical estimations of a modification of conditions of process and a certain function which with a good degree of an exactitude would describe its behaviour is necessary. I have assumed, that the function circumscribing transition from concept of the purpose to concept of a problem has the following kind:
 
p (t) = scale - ARCTANGENT ((t - bias) * resources / resource capacity),
 
Where "p" - a measure of indeterminacy of process, "t" - time, "scale" (s) - a parameter of a relativity of our measurements, "bias" (b) - initial temporary shift, "resources" (r) - the resources planned to investments in processes of reaching of the purpose, « resource capacity » (c) - power capacity of process. That, the submitted concept could be studied not only on a paper, and and in some vital a situation, I have written the small program (free). It allows to play three scripts of possible development of a situation, varying the various parameters, included in the indicated formula and also to receive relative modifications of each initial parameter. Such approach allows to choose the optimal path of development, under condition of a regularity of the indicated formula.
 
Having taken advantage of my program it is possible to conduct researches of behaviour, both the function, and a phenomenon of transition of reaching of the purpose circumscribed to it to the category of problems, to be exact process of accumulation and practical use of knowledge.
 
So, the parameter "s" sets a scale of measurements. At small significances, our indeterminacy of reaching of the purpose can be lowered in negative area that is inadmissible. As it means simply senseless occupation (for example, it is a lot of problems actual in Middle Ages for us have no any sense). « Bias » or temporary shift too very simple essence. It shows, at what stage we start to analyze our processes (that is already we have the accumulated knowledge). The power capacity of process, is an estimation of complete magnitude of means necessary for us for an investment in processes so that our purposes have turned to problems. The last parameter "r" characterizes our really planned investments in purchase of knowledge. Actually, the attitude "r/c" is relative investments of resources in study of processes. Naturally, the more this parity, the above our progress. Try to apply the given function to research of developments of computer technologies in conditions of powerful investment processes in this area, and computer progress will cease to be for you miracle.

Last modified: 08.03.2004
Translation by computer