First of all, we should define, that such system catastrophes. This multiple phenomenon. However together with progress the mankind will collide in increasing frequency with such kind of disasters. Especially it concerns the system « the person - technical progress ».

In the beginning we shall define for the system « the person - the designed world ». In age-old times technical and the technology factors influential in safety of the person, was not too much.

Houses of low construction. Practically any communications. Protozoa means of transport. But the world was changed. And today it is already possible to write, that the person has become is defenceless, somewhat, before engineering and technologies. Certainly, there is such concept as safety precautions and rules which inherently should defend us from failures.

However Titanic has sunk, 4-th block of the atomic power station in Chernobyl has blown up, the business center in New York is destroyed and so on. I shall not list{transfer} many other examples of system catastrophes to not force on you redundant pavor.

It is important for us to understand one simple true. Systems of safety existing today have strong branch dependence (or dependence on a concrete kind of maintained engineering, structures, constructions and to that similar). Problems interaction on the junction of branches we attempt while to decide at a level not contacts (or precise differentiation) spheres (areola) of influence of branch or a concrete kind of a maintained construction. But such approach to solution of problems starts to give failures. The reason to this phenomenon is simple. The zoetic space, especially in the advanced countries, tends to be reduced. And contact of branch objects becomes more and more close. For example, the large shopping centers placed above lines of undergrounds.

I shall not write about necessity of interbranch standards of safety. They exist. All the same example about accommodation of shopping center above a line of underground. Naturally at designing any of these objects, the availability of the second is taken into account. Me the question how it is possible to control safety in complex interbranch systems (as a rule, already maintained) will interest.

And, first of all, it is necessary to perceive distinctly, that complete systems including technogenic, can be formed in conditions of interbranch interaction. I offer similar constructions to consolidate in a unit which is complex business unit, as a matter of fact.

If in age-old times in the system of conveyance of passengers in omnibuses one social inquiry was formed only. It - removal of the person from one point in other. That today the advanced transport system should execute social requests on increase of speed of carriage, comfort, insurance. The extended requests of social inquiries, in turn, form the qualitative extension of business around of traditional branches. These are objects of public catering, hotel, terminals and so forth. And these objects for maintenance of the operation require availability of additional objects of life-support. For example, this housing accommodation for the attendants. In result complexes are formed complex socially technologically.

The present social system of the responsibility according to norms of safety means the responsibility only within the framework of one object or branch. For example, buildings, trains, the automobile, the ministry and to that similar.

However not all so is simple. Sometimes, people responsible for safety, make all correctly within the framework of the rules of operation of object. Or admit minor violations which in case of the located object to any disastrous consequences cannot result. And catastrophe descends (how many similar cases in our life already happened). At trial, at a stage of inquest sometimes it is very difficult to place an actual reason of fatality or the true and uniform party in fault happened. An example, death of Titanic. Till now there is no answer - why there was a tragedy, and till now there are contributors of this event.

As a rule, at system catastrophes there is no uniform reason of catastrophe, there is no one guilty. Each of persons responsible for safety has introduced the mite to fatality. Therefore within the framework of the existing legislation difficultly or nearly so it is impossible attract somebody in really serious responsibility for the occurred tragedy. While the mankind uses in such situation a simple method of search guilty - penalize "switchman". Not without reason it is considered one of multiple spheres of activity of the person activity when various branch interests adjoin.

However the urgency of solution of a problem of system catastrophes increases. The world becomes more multiple both in technical sense and in social sense. However it does not mean, that the world becomes unguided. And about on the basis of what principles it is possible to control complex systems we shall talk in this article.

First of all, it is necessary to perceive, that any human system is in my comprehension business unit (even that is formed besides our will). It is important, very important. It is impossible from a service of the airport as systems to exclude, for example, services which provide passengers with power supply. This is unit. It is uniform business unit. Its primary goal - service of passengers.

How to design correct management of business unit from within, it is written already very much and much. For example, dear professor August-Wilhelm Scheer has in details enough developed the theory of management of processes. Moreover, mister professor not only has created the theory, but under his management the remarkable tool is built, permitting to model from within operation very complex business units. In the Internet many articles on this theme are published. Moreover, you can always address to the protosource, namely familiarize directly with operations of professor Scheer. I shall not write in details about it.

To write, how to control of business unit from within, I shall not be and for one reason. For me as the passenger of airline, is unimportant how in it management is arranged. To me the eventual result is important only. This my safe arrival to destination in time and without adventures. And whether the airline uses the pattern of management of processes, I can and not want to know. This internal business of corporation.

However I am hypochondriac. It is important for me to know, what steps the community of our fellow citizens (that is undertakes the state) for safety of my flight. To me the eventual result, my safe flight from one point of ground in other is important. Safety in this case is a measure of emergency security of business unit as internal function. It appears, that this parameter can be controlled in very complex systems. And differently the person never would depart in cosmos.

So - business unit. My next diagram - the simplified diagram of business unit. Always it is possible to measure any business by two antagonistic parameters (in any sense). It is emergency security (anti-recessionary stability) and profit. The more cheaply in company there is a life of the concrete person, the be higher the parameter of an accident rate can and that be higher the parameter of profitableness can. However the company, using legislative measures, can regulate both emergency stability, and profitableness of business.

From the point of view of business, the most important parameter is the profit. It is obvious. But the god has given in hand of the person such tool as motivation. Business is in itself inconceivable without company, and the company cannot be imagined without the system of motivation.

One more strange history about me, is exacter about my comprehension of the world. I up to the certain moment underestimated importance of motivation in social company. I fondly confused two concepts: motivation and stimulation. Now I, apparently, in this question have cleared up.

Motivation are frameworks in which business functions. Stimulation is a complex of measures for increase of efficiency of business. The matter is that the result of motivation, as such, on a degree of influence on efficiency of business can be the most unpredictable. Efficiency can be increased, but can and be reduced. And stimulation only increases efficiency of business. It is important for me that also you perceived it.

The motivation is the tool on external management of business. For example, the tax laws, a various stem rules, state programs and credits and so forth. Therefore, it is possible to assume, that through the system of motivation it is possible to control such parameter as an accident rate of business.

However talk we shall begin with the parameter of emergency stability (refusal probability - BU/RP), indicated on my scheme. It is natural, that any business unit, irrespective of its complexity, it can be characterized by this parameter. I about it already wrote. For example, in a case with Titanic this parameter was proportional to probability of death (flooding) of the ship. Basically, there is no such system and it is impossible to create such system which is protected on 100 percents from failures.

There is one more factor which is not taken into account by the person and about whom I already wrote. Namely. We frequently overlook about that fact, that frequently systems construct themselves without ours on that permissions. It seems to us, that if to adhere to a branch principle of sharing of business or objects of a national economy we are guaranteed against interbranch interactions (unevident). As though not so. The more closely the zoetic space, the is stronger penetration of one branch in other and their interference against each other.

Sad history with act of terrorism in the USA. The builders creating towers have calculated safety factor of towers with a high accuracy rate. However the factor of interbranch interaction on September, 11 has interfered with tragedies. Namely civil aircraft. As fatal impact on towers has been put by planes. Builders hardly expected for it. And hardly the security service of business centre could affect somehow security service in civil aircraft. This system has developed of itself, somewhat (and terrorists to it have simply taken advantage). And if security services, having united, have evaluated such danger tragedies could not take place in a reality.

As the result, today flights of planes of passenger aircraft are prohibited above is strategic the important objects. Or from the moment of death of Titanic radio operators by the ships bear night-and-day watch.

The chain of events in development of any catastrophe can be simulated as on space, and for a while. I shall not result examples (though I shall remind of numerous researches of reasons of death of Titanic). Too tiresomely and long. It is important to make the following conclusion only. In tragedy on September, 11 there was the certain system consisting of towers and planes. You completely precisely can notice, that it I shall name business unit. On an input - the social order for safety of all objects and people and very much, very much the low interest of an accident rate. But has worked. It is a pity to me. It is not necessary to believe, that time of life of the system cannot be short-term. Very much can be. For example, only time of flyover of the plane above the big city.

How the company can influence own safety? Only through the system of motivation, more precisely, by means of it « three whales »: force, money and belief. About these three amounting motivations and how with their help it is possible to control our safety, we shall talk more in detail.

The first kind of motivation - authoritative board or force. It is the system of penalties for inadequate performance of the responsibilities. You can object me - what it is motivation. Very simple and clear. If I am the chief, absence of punishment for proper performance of the responsibilities it already motivation. It is even easier. For the fact that I do not attend of rip-off, me will not plant in prison for rip-off.

The second kind of motivation is the compromise or money. For example, the system of the taxation. The system of taxes it is possible to adjust export and import, and also production of this or that production to those or other conditions. For example, increasing taxes to ecologically unsafe productions it is possible to achieve that these productions will be or are stopped or updated. On the other hand, relaxing an incidence of taxation, it is possible to stimulate production of certain production. Still an example, customs duties with which it is possible to adjust production of specific goods inside any state (pay attention to customs wars of the last years between the various states, and to you will become all clearly).

But it can be not only taxes or duties. And still, for example, social programs, public credits, programs of a support of small business and so on. It is important to mark, that we, on behalf of the state, we can, both to withdraw money resources for business, and to put in it.

The third kind of motivation is the consensus or belief. For example, construction of communism in Russia the last century. Serious enough kind of motivation. Sometimes it seems to me, that as a whole the world belittles significance of this kind of motivation of behaviour of people. It is error, moreover what. When in the name of the maximum ideas people go on victims or material forfeitings, whether it is such grass - snake the weak system of effect on behaviour of the person. Only one example. This behaviour of Soviet people during the second world war in the name of victory.

Naturally, it is possible to measure any kind of motivation in money. The second system of motivating, money, we shall skip in our reasonings (it and so money). And the first and the third is it is necessary to discuss slightly.

The contents of police, courts, the prisons, special services requires the certain financial costs, and not small. Therefore, it is possible to speak, that it is possible to measure power stimulation in money (for example, under articles of a public finance).

It is not necessary to believe, that the belief it is free. As though not so. In solid moneys to policies and political parties development and entering into masses of people of ideologies, national ideas, political directions of development of company manages. In my opinion, the system of belief as the means of motivation, perhaps, is the most wasteful, dangerous and risky (struggle for an authority, whether knows).

However now me the concrete sums of money resources spent by community of people at the system of motivating in splitting under articles will not interest. It is interesting, but is not actual in a context of the given article. For us the relative share of financial costs for each of the listed kinds of motivating is important. Not without reason in a figure I have resulted Bobrovnikov's formula for motivation.

The sum of relative investments of the system of motivating is always equal to unit.

The further my reasonings concerning management of hazards in social community will concern only ratio of factors in this formula.

Style of management is defined, first of all, by a ratio of factors in my formula. Probably, it is possible to introduce the formula of democracy in this or that period of a history of mankind. I shall not be engaged however it (I shall leave this problem for political scientists, especially system). Me will interest, as with the help of my formula it is possible to control hazards. Though, the answer is already obvious to the majority of my readers. Only changing a ratio of factors in the system of motivating. Certainly, decrease of risks is possible at the expense of augmentation of financing, for example, special services. But not always the expected effect will meet to a reality (in such a way uneasy to create a police state).

Let's be defined, for the beginning, with virtual situations when values of these factors will be close to their limiting significance (1). If the power factor is close to 1 it will be prison or a barracks. If the money factor is close to unit it will be shop, a bench, a market. If the factor of belief is close to 1 it will be the light future (important - that not only on a paper). But these limiting cases in life it does not happen never. And it is you realize.

If somewhere something arrives, other decreases (according to Bobrovnikov's formula). Closeness of these factors to their limiting significance in the real state, in my opinion, can mean revolution, a civil war, palace revolution or other social shocks. The situation is stabilized only after significances of these factors are levelled. If want the concrete data find to me sponsors on these researches (and be accumulated by patience and a valerian). Hardly is more detailed about oscillations of these parameters.

If we attempt to secure ourselves and the relatives, increasing financing power amounting there is a decrease of the value of other factors. In result prevalence of power principles of decisionmaking in company that can result democracy in a military mode starts. However this augmentation of power factor not always results in desirable increase of security of the citizen, that is increase of emergency stability of objects of a national economy.

The matter is that the person an essence gregarious - social and to locate one citizen relative other is more than science fiction. Each of us has vision of the world, the principles and the measure of the responsibility for a work on hand. As system operation in militarized company can result result in elementary "washing away" of brains from management. Such solution hardly will positively affect safety. Century experience of sacred inquisition has already proved it.

On the other hand, the competent national idea of collective security can bring more advantage in a question of individual safety, than all other kinds of motivating. But it is possible only provided that the power system of motivating is good is advanced. Otherwise, only on one belief it is very difficult to control the big community of people. Always there will be people "dishonest". As an example can analyze a situation in 20-40 years of the last century in Russia.

There is still a factor of prevalence money amounting in the system of motivating. We can stimulate much in the greater measure of people occupied in the system of our safety. It will result in increase of efficiency of their operation that will affect a general level of safety. But, only up to the certain limit. At any stage processes of a competitiveness (including unhealthy) which can result in an intelligent depletion of the system of safety will join. If their significance in community is not belittled can supply a honest competitiveness or authoritative amounting motivations (USA), or the system of the consensus (Japan) .

Sometimes simply enough correctly to change significances of these factors without augmentation of financing, to increase emergency stability of business unit (or communities of people). Agree, that, certainly it is possible to deliver the guard of the law about each lamppost. And to make it it is possible, only having increased the taxation that will reduce profitableness other business units (and accordingly will reduce their level of safety). In result, we shall hunt the terrorist in the street, and it will appear in the plane (or the airline will simply become bankrupt). Hardly suchf0 in such systems it is possible correct distribution of money resources on three kinds of motivating: force, money, belief. Any kind of motivating it is impossible and even it is dangerous to neglect.

Last modified: 25.03.2006
Translation by computer